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      气候变化下长江流域水旱特征与防御对策研究

      Study on floods and droughts characteristics and defense strategies in Yangtze River Basin under climate change

      • 摘要: 在全球气候变化影响下,长江流域近年来水旱灾害的突发性、异常性、复合性和不确定性增加,尤其是超历史纪录的局地暴雨引发的极端洪水、长历时大范围不降水和高温带来的严重干旱,以及旱涝/涝旱急转和高温骤旱等复合型极端水文气象事件,对流域水安全、粮食安全、生态安全保障带来新的挑战。系统分析了气候变化下长江流域水旱近期变化特征,梳理了当前流域水旱防御工作的难点,并提出了应对气候变化的水旱统筹防御对策建议,包括:加强极端强降水监测和中长期水雨情预测,推进“四预”能力提升;加强流域水网和水资源配置工程建设,尽快编制流域水旱灾害统筹防御规划或抗旱专项规划;坚持旱涝同防同治,加强水工程联合调度和洪水风险管控;加强山洪灾害防治、中小河流治理,城市内涝和雨洪资源智能管控;推广数字孪生流域和工程建设,应用人工智能和大模型提升统筹防御决策能力;加强气候变化水旱灾害风险管理理论和人水和谐现代化对策研究等。研究成果可为长江流域安全韧性建设提供参考。

         

        Abstract: Under the influence of global climate change, Yangtze River Basin has in recent years experienced increasing suddenness, abnormality, compound effects, and uncertainty in flood and drought disasters.In particular, extreme floods triggered by unprecedented local rainstorms, severe droughts caused by prolonged large-scale absence of precipitation and high temperatures, as well as compound extreme hydro-meteorological events such as rapid transitions between drought and flood, and sudden droughts under heat waves, have posed new challenges to water security, food security, and ecological security in the basin.This study systematically analyzed the recent variations in floods and droughts in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change, reviewed the current difficulties in flood and drought defense, and proposed integrated flood-drought defense strategies for coping with climate change.These include: strengthening monitoring of extreme precipitation and improving medium and long term hydrometeorological forecasting, and advancing the Four Pres (prediction, forecasting, early warning, and preparedness) capacities; enhancing basin water network and water resource allocation projects, and expediting the preparation of integrated flood-drought defense or dedicated drought-resistance plans; adhering to the principle of simultaneous prevention and control of both droughts and floods, while strengthening joint regulation of water projects and flood risk management; improving flash flood prevention, small and medium-sized river management, urban waterlogging control, and smart management of stormwater resources; promoting the construction of digital twin basins and projects, and applying artificial intelligence and large models to enhance integrated defense decision-making capacity; advancing theoretical research on flood and drought risk management under climate change as well as strategies for modernization of harmonious human-water relations.These efforts can provide a reference for safety and resilience building in Yangtze River Basin.

         

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