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      “十四五”水电发展现状和中长期展望

      Development status of hydropower during 14th Five-Year Plan period and medium to long term prospects

      • 摘要: 中国水力资源丰富,经过多年发展,水电勘测设计、工程建设、装备制造等全产业链达到世界领先水平。“十四五”时期是中国水电由高速发展向高质量发展的关键阶段,在“双碳”战略引领下,水电功能定位发生转变,水电建设规模持续跃升发展,水电发展模式实现创新拓展。通过系统梳理分析水电发展情况,重点对“十四五”以来水电规划目标、重大任务等情况进行回顾,结合当前新型能源体系、新型电力系统建设的新形势新要求,分析水电面临的机遇挑战,并对未来水电发展思路、功能定位等进行展望。结果表明:“十四五”以来,中国水电新增投产整体符合进度要求、新增核准装机规模已完成规划目标;“十五五”及中长期,水电发展思路为“增量发展与存量提升”并重,功能定位为“电量供应与容量支撑”并重,预计到2050年中国常规水电装机规模有望达5亿kW以上。研究成果可为中国水电行业可持续发展提供重要的数据支撑与策略参考。

         

        Abstract: China boasts abundant hydropower resources, and after years of development, its comprehensive capabilities across the entire industry chain, including hydropower survey and design, engineering construction, and equipment manufacturing, which have reached world-leading levels. The 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021 to 2025) marks a crucial phase for China s hydropower sector transitioning from rapid expansion to high-quality development. Guided by the Dual Carbon Strategy (peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality), the functional orientation of hydropower has undergone transformative changes, with major breakthroughs in strategic hydropower planning, continuous scaling-up of construction projects, and innovative expansion of development models. This paper systematically reviews hydropower development progress, particularly examining planning targets and key missions since the 14th Five-Year Plan implementation. It analyzes opportunities and challenges facing hydropower in the context of new requirements from emerging energy systems and modernized power grid development, while projecting future development pathways and functional positioning. Research indicates that newly operational hydropower capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan has generally met schedule requirements, with approved installed capacity already fulfilling planning targets. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan and beyond, China s hydropower development will adopt a dual focus on capacity expansion and operational optimization, serving both electricity supply and grid stability functions. Projections suggest China s conventional hydropower installed capacity could exceed 500 million kilowatts by 2050. This study provides data support and strategic references for the sustainable development of China s hydropower industry.

         

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