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      基于气象要素驱动的流域降雨预报研究

      Research on basin rainfall forecast driven by global meteorological forcing

      • 摘要: 为提高流域降雨的预见期和预报精度,提升流域防洪减灾及应急响应水平,以嫩江流域为例,采用多源气象数据对流域进行降雨预报。构建了多源气象数据的融合方法,搭建流域WRF模型并进行基于气象要素的降雨预报校正,从降雨预报精度和预见期两方面对比该预报模型与GFS预报的差异。结果表明:通过优化降雨预报模型的物理参数化方案,可以显著改善所研究流域降雨预报的准确性和可靠性,在捕捉降雨物理过程方面表现出更高的精度,能够更好地模拟流域降雨的时空分布特征。研究成果对于流域降雨预报和洪涝灾害防御具有一定的现实指导意义。

         

        Abstract: To improve the prediction period and forecasting accuracy of rainfall in the basin, and enhance the level of flood control, disaster reduction and emergency response in the basin, taking Nenjiang Basin as an example, multi-source meteorological data were adopted to conduct rainfall forecasting for the target basin. The fusion method of multi-source meteorological data was constructed. The WRF model of the basin was built and the rainfall forecast correction based on global meteorological forcing was carried out. The differences between WRF model and the GFS forecast were compared in terms of rainfall forecast accuracy and forecast period. The research results showed that by optimizing the physical parameterization scheme of the rainfall model, the accuracy and reliability of rainfall forecasting in the studied basin can be significantly improved. The method is applicable to the basin of this study, which shows higher precision in capturing the physical process of rainfall, and can better simulate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall. The research results have certain practical significance for rainfall forecasting and flood disaster prevention in the river basin.

         

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