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      长江中游七姓洲崩岸成因分析及预警系统研究

      Study of bank collapse causes and early warning system in Qixingzhou in middle reaches of Changjiang River

      • 摘要: 针对长江中游下荆江河段七弓岭弯道右岸七姓洲近年来的岸线崩退问题,系统分析了崩岸成因,主要是河岸土体结构具有二元特征,稳定性差、总体抗冲刷能力较弱;受上下游河势调整影响,深泓贴岸、迎流顶冲,岸线持续崩退;受特殊水情影响,2020年长江流域发生特大洪水,洪峰过后崩岸强度远超常年,2024年来水丰枯急转,水流归槽后对岸坡淘刷作用显著增强,崩岸再度加剧。在此基础上,初步构建了崩岸监测预警系统,显著提升了崩岸监测预警的时效性。研究成果丰富了河道崩岸灾害精细化分析与预警防控方法,对提升崩岸灾害预警和风险防控能力具有实践价值,可为长江中下游崩岸灾害防治提供参考。

         

        Abstract: This article systematically analyzed the causes of the shoreline collapse of Qixingzhou on the right bank of Qigongling bend in the middle reaches of Changjiang River, including the binary characteristics of the riverbank soil structure, poor stability, and overall weak resistance to erosion. Affected by the adjustment of upstream and downstream river conditions, the deep channel is close to the shore, facing the top of the flow, and the coastline continues to collapse and retreat. Due to the influence of special water conditions, a major flood occurred in Changjiang River Basin in 2020. After the peak of the flood, the intensity of bank collapse far exceeded the usual level. Since 2024, the flow has sharply changed from high to low, and the scouring effect on the bank slope has significantly increased after the flow returns to the trough, exacerbating the bank collapse again. On this basis, a preliminary monitoring and warning system for shoreline collapse was constructed, which significantly improved the timeliness of shoreline monitoring and warning. The research results have enriched the refined analysis and early warning prevention methods for river bank collapse disasters, and have practical value for improving the ability of bank collapse disaster early warning and risk prevention. It can provide technical reference for the prevention and control of bank collapse disasters in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River.

         

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