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      基于CNN-LSTM的水库多目标优化调度规则提取

      Extraction of multi-objective optimization operation rule for reservoirs based on CNN-LSTM

      • 摘要: 为提升复杂水资源系统调度的科学性与智能化水平, 以黄河上游龙羊峡水库为研究对象, 提出一种融合多目标优化与深度学习的水库调度规则提取框架。基于1956~2023年的月尺度数据, 构建发电量最大和缺水量最小的双目标优化调度模型, 采用NSGA-Ⅱ获取Pareto最优解集。利用LSTM、CNN、CNN-LSTM和RF等模型对最优调度方案的出库流量序列进行规则提取与拟合。研究从调度目标和模型性能两个维度评估规则提取效果。研究结果表明:CNN-LSTM在3类调度目标中均表现最优, 拟合精度分别达0.94(发电)、0.92(供水)和0.95(折中), 显著优于其他对比模型。该方法为水库多目标调度规则提取提供了有效途径, 并为模型选择提供了参考。

         

        Abstract: To enhance the scientific rigor and intelligence of operation for complex water resource system, this study proposes an integrated framework combining multi-objective optimization with deep learning for extracting reservoir operation rules, using the Longyangxia Reservoir in the upper reaches of Yellow River as a case study. Based on monthly-scale data from 1956 to 2023, a dual-objective optimization operation model was first constructed to maximize power generation while minimizing water supply deficits, with Pareto-optimal solutions obtained using the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm. Subsequently, LSTM, CNN, CNN-LSTM, and RF models were employed to extract and fit operation rules for optimal discharge sequences. The study evaluates rule extraction performance from operation objectives and model accuracy two dimensions. Results demonstrate that CNN-LSTM consistently outperforms other models across all three operation objectives, achieving fitting accuracy of 0.94 (power generation), 0.92 (water supply), and 0.95 (trade-off), respectively. This approach provides an effective method for extracting multi-objective reservoir operation rules while offering reference for model selection.

         

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