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      基于VMD-SSA-LSTM的滑坡变形预测模型研究

      Research on landslide deformation prediction model based on VMD-SSA-LSTM

      • 摘要: 为准确预测滑坡变形趋势、预防灾害的发生,提出了一种基于VMD-SSA-LSTM的滑坡变形趋势预测模型。首先,利用变分模态分解模型(VMD)将滑坡GNSS监测曲线分解为多个子信号;然后,通过麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化长短期记忆网络(LSTM),对每个子信号进行趋势预测分析;最后将多个预测值相加,得到趋势预测结果。通过将该模型与LSTM、VMD-LSTM、BP神经网络模型进行对比,验证其预测效果。结果表明:相较于其他模型,VMD-SSA-LSTM预测模型提升了对复杂时序特征的适应性,能使训练及测试精度更高;该模型的预测结果与实际变形结果相符,具有较高的适应性,可用于滑坡趋势预测分析。

         

        Abstract: In order to accurately predict the deformation trends of landslides and prevent disasters in advance, a landslide deformation trend prediction model based on VMD-SSA-LSTM was proposed.Firstly, the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) model was used to decompose the landslide GNSS monitoring curve into multiple sub-signals.Then the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA) was employed to analyze the trend prediction of each sub-signal.Finally, the predicted values were summed to obtain the trend prediction results.By comparing this model with LSTM, VMD-LSTM, and BP neural network models, the prediction performance was verified.The results show that VMD-SSA-LSTM prediction model had a higher adaptability of complex temporal features, as well as higher training and testing accuracy compared to other models.The prediction results were consistent with the actual deformation results, demonstrating its high adaptability and feasibility for landslide trend prediction analysis.

         

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