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      考虑坝段特性差异的丹江口水库大坝安全风险评估

      Safety risk assessment of Danjiangkou Reservoir Dam considering characteristic differences of dam sections

      • 摘要: 坝段特性差异对大坝安全风险评估结果具有相应的影响,以丹江口水库大坝为例考虑坝段特性开展安全风险评估。按照坝型和坝段划分评估单元,深入剖析可能发生的风险事件及存在的风险因子,构建了风险评估层次结构模型;采用层次分析法和以德尔菲法为核心的专家评分方法,参考工程建设和运行相关资料,充分考虑不同坝段的特性差异,确定评估单元的权重系数;根据工程实际制定了包括风险可能性标准和风险严重性标准在内的风险等级评价标准,由此计算出各评估单元的风险量值,并逐层向上集成,最终得到该水库大坝的风险评估结果。结果表明,丹江口水库大坝风险量值(5.91)较小,风险等级(Ⅱ级)较低,为一般风险。该风险评估方法有助于进一步管控风险,可为保障工程安全运行提供支撑。

         

        Abstract: Characteristics differences of dam sections have a corresponding impact on the results of dam safety risk assessment.This paper took the Danjiangkou Reservoir Dam as an example to conduct safety risk assessment considering differences in characteristics of dam sections.The hierarchical structure model of risk assessment was constructed by dividing the evaluation units according to dam types and dam sections, and deeply analyzing possible risk events and risk factors.The analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method with Delphi method as the core were used, relevant information on engineering construction and operation was referenced, and the differences in the characteristics of different dam sections were fully considered to determine the weight coefficients of the evaluation units.Based on the actual situation of the project, risk level evaluation standards including standards of risk likelihood and risk severity were developed.The risk values of each evaluation unit were calculated and integrated layer by layer.The result of risk assessment of the reservoir dam was obtained finally.The result showed that the risk values (5.91) and the risk level (Level Ⅱ) of the Danjiangkou Reservoir Dam were relatively low, and it belonged to the general risk.The method of risk assessment was help for further controlling risks, and could provide support for ensuring the safe operation of the project.

         

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