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      南水北调中线工程涿州站冬季综合寒冷程度评估

      Evaluation of comprehensive cold intensity in winter at Zhuozhou Station of South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

      • 摘要: 为了深化对南水北调中线工程沿线冬季极端气象条件尤其是综合寒冷程度的认识,基于中线总干渠明渠段最北端涿州气象站1981~2021年的冬季日平均气温数据,选取日平均气温低于0 ℃的日数、日平均气温最小极值和累计负积温3个关键因子,构建了冬季综合寒冷指数(Winter Composite Cold Index,WCCI),并对涿州站近41 a来的冬季综合寒冷程度进行了定量分析。结果表明:① 12月份初,涿州站日平均气温基本接近0 ℃;12月下旬至次年1月中旬逐步降至年度最低,多年平均值维持在-4 ℃左右;随后在2月中旬前后回升至0 ℃以上;1月份气温最低。② 1981~1987年和2000~2021年期间,涿州站冬季综合寒冷程度较高,2013年达到峰值,而1988~1999年间寒冷程度相对较低;1月份则以2000年最为寒冷,2001年和2013年次之。③在南水北调中线工程正式通水的2014~2021年,涿州站2021年冬季综合寒冷程度最高,WCCI为-1.82,1月份则以2016年最为寒冷,WCCI为-2.92,但均与冬季WCCI历史极值-5.08和1月WCCI历史极值-4.93存在显著差距,分别相差64.17%和40.77%,表明工程运行8 a尚未经历极端寒冷冬季的考验。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程沿线极端寒冷年份定量化识别及冰期输水动态调度、冰凌灾害防范和突发应急处置提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To enhance understanding of extreme winter meteorological conditions, particularly comprehensive cold intensity along the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, based on the daily average temperature data in winter from 1981 to 2021 at Zhuozhou Meteorological Station, which is located at the northern end of the open channel section of Middle Route main canal, three key factors, namely days with sub-zero temperatures, minimum daily extreme temperature and cumulative negative accumulated temperature, were selected to construct the Winter Composite Cold Index (WCCI).A quantitative analysis of the comprehensive cold degree in winter at Zhuozhou Station over the past 41 years was carried out.The research results showed that: In early December, the daily average temperature approached 0 ℃, gradually declining to an annual minimum of approximately -4 ℃ between late December and mid-January, followed by recovery to above 0 ℃ by mid-February, with January being the coldest month.The winter cold intensity was relatively high from 1981 to 1987 and from 2000 to 2021, peaking in 2013, while it was lower from 1988 to 1999.For January, the coldest year was 2000, followed by 2001 and 2013.From 2014 to 2021, when the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was officially put into operation, the winter of 2021 at Zhuozhou Station had the highest overall coldness level, with the WCCI reaching -1.82, and January 2016 showed the coldest monthly value (WCCI=-2.92).These two values were significantly higher than historical extremes (-5.08 and -4.93) by 64.17% and 40.77%, respectively, indicating that the project has not yet faced extreme winter conditions during the eight years of the project operation.This research provides a scientific basis for comprehensive assessment of the cold intensity in winter along the Middle Route Project, such as the quantitative identification of extremely cold years, the dynamic scheduling of water diversion during the ice period, and the prevention of ice-related disasters and emergency response.

         

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