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      2000~2022年云南省降水与地表水资源时空演变特征及响应关系研究

      Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and response relationship between precipitation and surface water resources in Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2022

      • 摘要: 为明晰云南省降水量与地表水资源的变化趋势及演变关系,借助皮尔逊相关性分析法、累积距平法及Mann-Kendall检验法、克里金插值法及流域水量平衡法等,系统分析了2000~2022年降水与地表水资源量的时空演变特征及其相关关系。结果表明:①全省降水量呈微弱下降趋势(-0.8%),而地表水资源量衰减更为显著(-7.64%),二者均呈现“波动上升(2000~2008年)、急剧下降(2008~2014年)、平稳恢复(2014~2022年)”的阶段性特征,突变点分别出现在2001年和2003年;②空间分布上,滇东地区因喀斯特地貌调蓄作用,2000~2022年相比于2000~2010年,降水与地表水资源量分别逆势增长1.94%和1.57%,而滇西、滇中衰减明显;③降水-地表水资源量转化效率存在显著区域差异(滇东>滇中>滇南>滇西),其中滇东转化效率最高(斜率0.25),滇西最低(斜率0.08)。研究成果可为云南省水资源分区管理和跨境河流合作提供参考,建议针对不同区域特点采取差异化调控措施。

         

        Abstract: In order to clarify the trend and evolutionary relationship between precipitation and surface water resources in Yunnan Province, the temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation and surface water resources and their inter-relationships from 2000 to 2022 were systematically analyzed with Pearson correlation analysis, cumulative anomaly and the Mann-Kendall test.The study showed that the province′s precipitation was in a weak decreasing trend (-0.8%), while the surface water resources decay was more significant (-7.64%), and both of them showed the stage characteristics of fluctuating rise (from 2000 to 2008), sharp decline (from 2008 to 2014), and smooth recovery (from 2014 to 2022), with the mutation points in 2001 and 2003, respectively.In terms of spatial distribution, due to the storage effect of karst landforms, the precipitation and surface water resources in east Yunnan increased by 1.94% and 1.57% respectively, against the trend from 2000 to 2022 compared to 2000 to 2010, while west Yunnan and central Yunnan declined significantly.There were significant regional differences in the conversion efficiency of precipitation-surface water resources (east Yunnan > central Yunnan > southern Yunnan > western Yunnan).Among them, the highest transformation efficiency was in eastern Yunnan (with a slope of 0.25), and the lowest in western Yunnan (with a slope of 0.08).The results of the study can provide a reference for the zoning management of water resources and cross-border river cooperation in Yunnan Province, and it is suggested to take differentiated regulation measures according to the characteristics of different regions.

         

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