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      1961~2023年汉江流域极端降水时空演变特征及影响因素研究

      Research on spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of extreme precipitation in Hanjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2023

      • 摘要: 在全球气候变化背景下, 气候事件的突发性、极端性、反常性日益凸显, 研究极端降水时空演变特征对于流域防汛抗旱具有重要意义。以汉江流域为研究对象, 基于极端降水指数对该流域1961~2023年的极端降水时空演变特征进行了研究, 并从高程和大气环流两个方面揭示了其对流域极端降水的影响。结果表明:1961~2023年汉江流域SDII、RX1day、RX5day、R20、CDD、CWD和R95p呈上升的趋势, PRCPTOT、R10、R99p则呈下降的趋势;RX1day上升的区域主要集中在流域中部, RX5day变化区域与RX1day基本重合;流域大部分SDII呈上升的趋势, 以中部上升最为明显; CDD除武汉略微下降外,其他区域均明显上升; 流域R95p、R99p、PRCPTOT上升和下降的区域基本一致, 表现为西部和东部下降, 其余区域均有不同程度的上升。汉江流域极端降水指数与高程有着密切的相关性, 在武汉、天门、钟祥等低海拔地区,极端降水指数与大气环流指数表现为滞后相关性, 滞后期为1 a;在西峡、房县、安康等高海拔地区,极端降水指数与大气环流指数表现为同步相关性;其他区域极端降水基本不受大气环流的影响。

         

        Abstract: Under the background of global climate change, the suddenness, extremity and abnormality of climate events have become increasingly prominent. Studying the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation is of great significance for flood control and drought relief in river basins. Taking the Hanjiang River Basin as the research object, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in the basin from 1961 to 2023 based on extreme precipitation indices, and revealed its influence of elevation and atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation in the basin. The results showed that from 1961 to 2023, SDII, RX1day, RX5day, R20, CDD, CWD and R95p in the Hanjiang River Basin showed an upward trend, while PRCPTOT, R10 and R99p showed a downward trend. The areas with an upward trend in RX1day were mainly concentrated in the middle of the basin, and the areas with changes in RX5day were basically the same as those of RX1day. Most of the basin showed an upward trend in SDII, with the most obvious increase in the middle of the basin. The CDD in the basin decreased slightly in Wuhan, while other areas increased significantly. R95p, R99p, PRCPTOT showed the same upward and downward areas, with the western and eastern parts of the basin showing a decline, and other areas showing different degrees of increase. The extreme precipitation indices in the Hanjiang River Basin have a close correlation with elevation. In low altitude areas such as Wuhan, Tianmen and Zhongxiang, the extreme precipitation indices showed a lag correlation with the atmospheric circulation indices, with a lag period of one year. In high altitude areas such as Xixia, Fangxian and Ankang, the extreme precipitation indices showed a synchronous correlation with the atmospheric circulation indices. In other areas, extreme precipitation was basically not affected by atmospheric circulation.

         

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