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      1960~2024年河南鸭河口水库流域降雨径流演变特征研究

      Study on evolution characteristics of rainfall and runoff in Yahekou Reservoir Basin of Henan Province from 1960 to 2024

      • 摘要: 为了揭示河南南阳市鸭河口水库流域的水文演变规律, 为水资源管理和洪水调度提供科学依据, 基于1960~2024年的降雨和径流数据, 采用Mann-Kendall检验法、累积距平分析法及5 0a滑动平均法, 分析了水库流域降雨和径流的年内、年际变化, 并利用Morlet小波变换分析了降雨量和径流量的周期性特征。结果表明:鸭河口水库流域年内月降雨量分布不均, 月径流量差异较大, 汛期集中了全年约77%的降雨量和径流量。年际间降雨量和径流量波动较大, 整体均呈现下降趋势, 且二者的变化模式趋于一致。降雨量和径流量分别于2010年和2012年前后发生不显著突变, 突变前呈振荡上升趋势, 突变后则转为下降趋势。降雨量和径流量存在4个主周期变化, 分别为55, 34, 19, 8 a, 对应的变化周期约为35, 20, 11, 6 a;两者的周期性变化基本同步, 且第一主周期均为55 a。

         

        Abstract: To reveal the hydrological evolution patterns of Yahekou Reservoir Basin in Nanyang City, Henan Province, and provide a scientific basis for its water resources management and flood regulation, we analyzed precipitation and runoff data from 1960 to 2024. Using the Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly analysis, and 5-year moving average method, the intra-annual and inter-annual periodic variations of rainfall and runoff within the reservoir basin were investigated. The Morlet wavelet transform was further applied to examine the periodic characteristics of precipitation and runoff. The results indicated that the monthly precipitation distribution within the Yahekou Reservoir Basin was uneven, and monthly runoff varied significantly, with approximately 77% of the annual rainfall and runoff concentrated during the flood season. Both annual precipitation and runoff exhibited considerable fluctuations over the years, overall showing a declining trend, with their variation patterns tending to be consistent. Statistically non-significant abrupt changed in precipitation and runoff occurred around 2010 and 2012, respectively. Before the abrupt changes, both showed an oscillating upward trend, which shifted to a downward trend afterward. Additionally, precipitation and runoff displayed four primary periodicities, which were 55, 34, 19, and 8 years, corresponding to variation cycles of approximately 35, 20, 11, and 6 years, respectively. The periodic variations of rainfall and runoff were essentially synchronous, with the first primary periodicity being 55 years for both.

         

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