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      基于改进Blaney-Criddle方法的蜻蛉河灌区参考作物腾发量预报

      Forecast of reference crop evapotranspiration in Qingling River irrigation district based on improved Blaney-Criddle method

      • 摘要: 为了提高滇中典型灌区参考作物腾发量(ET0)预报精度, 增强灌区防灾减灾韧性, 以云南蜻蛉河灌区为例, 以FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)方法为标准, 利用灌区周围4个气象站点2001~2021年逐日实测气象资料,对Blaney-Criddle(BC)方法进行ET0预报的适用性评价及参数率定, 构建改进BC方法(OBC)并应用于灌区实际ET0预报。结果表明:OBC方法与PM方法ET0计算值总体上一致, 改进后BC方法的准确率由78.90%上升到97.48%, 均方根误差由1.14 mm/d减小为0.68 mm/d, 平均绝对误差由0.95 mm/d降低为0.54 mm/d;ET0预报精度随预见期增加而下降, 5,10 d和30 d预见期各相关统计指标较好, 均方根误差分别为0.73, 0.74, 0.78 mm/d,平均绝对误差分别为0.56, 0.58, 0.61 mm/d。预测精度整体水平较高, 预见期为30 d的数值天气预报平均准确率为67.24%, 能够满足灌区灌溉预报要求, 研究成果可为灌区制定灌溉政策提供科学依据。

         

        Abstract: In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in typical irrigation districts of central Yunnan and enhance the disaster prevention and mitigation resilience of irrigation areas, taking the Qingling River irrigation district as an example and using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (PM) method as the standard, daily observed meteorological data from 2001 to 2021 at four meteorological stations surrounding the district were utilized to evaluate the applicability of the Blaney-Criddle (BC) method and calibrate its parameters, thereby constructing an optimized BC method (OBC) for practical ET0 forecasting in the irrigation district. The results showed that the ET0 values calculated by the OBC formula were generally consistent with those calculated by the PM formula. The accuracy of the optimized BC formula increased from 78.90% to 97.48%, the root mean square error (RMSE) decreased from 1.14 mm/d to 0.68 mm/d, and the mean absolute error (MAE) reduced from 0.95 mm/d to 0.54 mm/d. The ET0 forecasting accuracy decreases as the lead time increases, but the statistical indicators for 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day lead times remained favorable, with RMSE values of 0.73, 0.74, and 0.78 mm/d, respectively, and MAE values of 0.56, 0.58, and 0.61 mm/d, respectively. The overall prediction accuracy was high, with an average accuracy of 67.24% for 30-day numerical weather forecasts, meeting the requirements for irrigation forecasting in the district. The research results can provide a scientific basis for formulating irrigation policies in the irrigation district.

         

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