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      基于LSTM的大渡河足木足水文站水温序列重建研究

      Research on water temperature sequence reconstruction of Zumuzu Hydrological Station of Dadu River based on LSTM

      • 摘要: 河流水温在河流生态健康评估与水资源管理中占据核心地位。然而,在历史监测中受限于观测条件与设备维护,水温资料普遍存在缺测与不连续问题,限制了流域热力过程及生态响应研究。本文以大渡河上游足木足水文站为研究对象,构建基于LSTM算法的水温时间序列重建机器学习模型,并以SVR模型为对照。通过滑动窗口技术构建时序样本,结合气温、流量与太阳辐射等多源输入因子,对2007—2020年旬均水温进行时间序列的重建。结果显示,LSTM模型在训练与测试阶段的平均相对误差(MRE)分别为0.32与0.78,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.39与0.98,显著优于SVR模型的表现。LSTM模型能稳定重现水温的季节性升温与降温规律,预测结果与实测序列趋势高度一致,且在多轮重建中保持良好的收敛性与一致性。本研究验证了机器学习算法在水温时间序列重建中的有效性,为河流水温监测数据缺失或不连续问题提供了可行的技术手段。

         

        Abstract:   River water temperature plays a central role in river ecological health assessment and water resources management. However, due to the limitation of observation conditions and equipment maintenance in historical monitoring, the water temperature data are generally missing and discontinuous, which limits the research on watershed thermal process and ecological response. We constructed the water temperature time series reconstruction machine learning model based on LSTM algorithm by taking the Zumuzu hydrological station in the upper reaches of Dadu River as the research object, and used the SVR model as the control. The time series samples were constructed by sliding window technology, and the time series of ten-day average water temperature from 2007 to 2020 were reconstructed by combining multi-source input factors such as temperature, flow and solar radiation. The results show that the average relative error ( MRE ) of the LSTM model in the training and testing stages is 0.32 and 0.78 respectively, and the root mean square error ( RMSE ) is 0.39 and
          0.98 respectively, which is significantly better than the performance of the SVR model. The LSTM model can stably reproduce the seasonal warming and cooling laws of water temperature. The prediction results are highly consistent with the trend of the measured sequence, and maintain good convergence and consistency in multiple rounds of reconstruction. This study verifies the effectiveness of machine learning algorithm in the reconstruction of water temperature time series, and provides a feasible technical means for the problem of missing or discontinuous monitoring data of river water temperature.

         

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