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      基于AHP-信息量法的韶山市地质灾害风险评价

      Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters in Shaoshan City Based on the AHP-Information Quantity Model

      • 摘要: 地质灾害风险评价是管控的基础,对科学防灾至关重要。以湖南省韶山市为研究对象,选取地形地貌等5个一级指标,高差等12个二级指标因子,基于AHP-信息量模型开展易发性评价,以降雨量和切坡强度作为诱发因素开展双因子的危险性评价,结合承灾体易损性,分析划定地质灾害高、中、低三类风险区。结果表明: 高风险区面积12.91km2,占比5.23%;中等风险区面积47.74km2,占比19.33%;低风险区1个,面积186.37km2,占比75.44%。研究成果可有效应用到当地的防灾减灾工作,并为区域性地质灾害的风险评价提供借鉴意义。
         

         

        Abstract: Geological disaster risk assessment serves as the foundation and support for risk management and control, playing a critical role in the scientific prevention and mitigation of geological disasters. Taking Shaoshan City, Hunan Province, as the study area, this research selected five primary indicators (e.g., topography) and twelve secondary indicators (e.g., elevation difference) to evaluate disaster susceptibility. Additionally, rainfall intensity and slope-cutting intensity were used as dual inducing factors for hazard assessment. Combined with the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, the study delineated high-, medium-, and low-risk zones for geological disasters. The results indicate that the high-risk zone covers 12.91 km² (5.23% of the total area), the medium-risk zone spans 47.74 km² (19.33%), and the low-risk zone occupies 186.37 km² (75.44%). The research findings can be effectively applied to local disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, and provide a valuable reference framework for risk assessment of geological hazards in a given region.
         

         

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