Abstract:
Against the backdrop of global warming, Guizhou Province, as a typical karst ecologically fragile region, has experienced frequent extreme precipitation events, posing significant challenges to regional water resource management and disaster prevention and mitigation. This study aims to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province and the influence of geographic factors, thereby addressing the gaps in existing research on extreme precipitation features in typical karst areas. Based on the CHM_PRE daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2020 in Guizhou Province, nine extreme precipitation indices, including R20mm, PRCPTOT, and R95P, were selected. Comprehensive methods such as the moving average method, M-K abrupt change test, wavelet analysis, and Kriging interpolation were employed to examine the temporal trends, abrupt changes, periodic patterns, and spatial differentiation of extreme precipitation, as well as their relationships with geographic factors (latitude, longit、ude, and elevation). The results indicate that: (1) On a temporal scale, the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation exhibited significant increasing trends, with heavy precipitation amounts (R95P, R99P) rising at rates of 1.39 mm/year and 0.9 mm/year, respectively. The M-K test identified three abrupt change periods: 1975–1979, 1998–2002, and 2017–2020. Wavelet analysis revealed a primary cycle of 5–10 years for all indices, with the cycle shortening after 2000. (2) Spatially, the distribution generally followed a pattern of higher values in the south and lower values in the north. The southern and southeastern regions were identified as core areas of "high frequency-high intensity-high accumulation, " while the northwestern region was characterized by "low frequency-low intensity-drought dominance." (3) In terms of driving factors, latitude was the key determinant of spatial differentiation, while the influence of elevation exhibited regional variability. The strongest correlation was observed between annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and moderate rain days (R20mm) (r = 0.87). Over the past 60 years, extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province has intensified significantly, displaying distinct periodic characteristics, with its spatial differentiation primarily driven by the combined effects of latitude, longitude, and topographic factors. The findings of this study can provide scientific references for typical karst regions to address climate change risks and formulate regional disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.