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      贵州省近60年极端降水时空演变及其地理驱动因素分析

      • 摘要: 在全球变暖背景下,贵州省作为典型喀斯特生态脆弱区,极端降水事件频发,对区域水资源管理与防灾减灾构成了重大挑战。本研究旨在系统分析贵州省极端降水时空演变特征及地理因子的影响,以弥补现有研究在典型喀斯特地区极端降水特征方面的不足。因此,本文基于贵州省1961-2020年CHM_PRE逐日降水数据,选取R20mm、PRCPTOT、R95P等9个极端降水指数,综合运用滑动平均法、M-K突变检验、小波分析和克里金插值等方法,解析极端降水的时间趋势、突变特征、周期规律及空间分异,并探讨其与地理因子(纬度、经度、海拔)的关系。结果表明:(1)时间尺度上,极端降水频率、强度和持续时间均显著上升,其中强降水量(R95P、R99P)分别以1.39 mm/年和0.9 mm/年的速率增加;M-K检验识别出1975–1979年、1998–2002年和2017–2020年三个突变时段;小波分析显示各指标存在5–10年主周期,且2000年后周期缩短。(2)空间分布上,整体上呈现南部高、北部低的空间分异格局。南部及东南部为“高频-高强度-高累积”区,西北部为“低频-低强度-干旱主导”区。(3)驱动因素上,纬度是主导空间分异的关键因子,海拔影响存在区域差异性,而年降水总量(PRCPTOT)与中雨日数(R20mm)相关性最强(r=0.87)。近60年来贵州省极端降水显著增强,并呈现明显的周期性特征,其空间分异主要受经纬度与地形因子共同驱动。本研究成果可为典型喀斯特地区应对气候变化风险、制定区域防灾减灾策略提供科学参考。

         

        Abstract: Against the backdrop of global warming, Guizhou Province, as a typical karst ecologically fragile region, has experienced frequent extreme precipitation events, posing significant challenges to regional water resource management and disaster prevention and mitigation. This study aims to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province and the influence of geographic factors, thereby addressing the gaps in existing research on extreme precipitation features in typical karst areas. Based on the CHM_PRE daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2020 in Guizhou Province, nine extreme precipitation indices, including R20mm, PRCPTOT, and R95P, were selected. Comprehensive methods such as the moving average method, M-K abrupt change test, wavelet analysis, and Kriging interpolation were employed to examine the temporal trends, abrupt changes, periodic patterns, and spatial differentiation of extreme precipitation, as well as their relationships with geographic factors (latitude, longit、ude, and elevation). The results indicate that: (1) On a temporal scale, the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation exhibited significant increasing trends, with heavy precipitation amounts (R95P, R99P) rising at rates of 1.39 mm/year and 0.9 mm/year, respectively. The M-K test identified three abrupt change periods: 1975–1979, 1998–2002, and 2017–2020. Wavelet analysis revealed a primary cycle of 5–10 years for all indices, with the cycle shortening after 2000. (2) Spatially, the distribution generally followed a pattern of higher values in the south and lower values in the north. The southern and southeastern regions were identified as core areas of "high frequency-high intensity-high accumulation, " while the northwestern region was characterized by "low frequency-low intensity-drought dominance." (3) In terms of driving factors, latitude was the key determinant of spatial differentiation, while the influence of elevation exhibited regional variability. The strongest correlation was observed between annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and moderate rain days (R20mm) (r = 0.87). Over the past 60 years, extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province has intensified significantly, displaying distinct periodic characteristics, with its spatial differentiation primarily driven by the combined effects of latitude, longitude, and topographic factors. The findings of this study can provide scientific references for typical karst regions to address climate change risks and formulate regional disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

         

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