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      考虑水沙协同致灾效应的高山峡谷区山洪灾害风险评估

      Risk assessment for flash flood disaster considering water-sediment synergistic effect in alpine and canyon areas

      • 摘要: 为提高高山峡谷区山洪灾害风险评估的准确性, 以四川省雅安市宝兴县为研究区, 通过实地调查, 系统分析了每个评估对象的现状防洪能力、流域汇流时间、人口规模、固体物源量以及特殊河槽形态等风险因子, 并依据《四川省山洪灾害危险区动态及分级技术要求》的风险因子评分准则, 对96个评估对象的山洪致灾风险等级进行了初步划分。在此基础上, 针对泥沙物源丰富区域, 进一步考虑水沙协同致灾效应, 即山洪挟沙水流在局部特殊形态河段可能引发的泥沙淤堵效应及其对防洪能力的削弱作用, 对原风险等级进行了调整。结果表明:在不考虑水沙协同致灾作用时, 66.7%的区域为低风险区, 33.3%为中风险区, 而历史山洪灾害事件中63.6%发生于低风险区, 显示出原有方法在风险识别上存在一定偏差;当考虑水沙协同作用对防洪能力的削减效应后, 原中风险区有31.2%的区域转变为高风险, 原低风险区有43.8%的区域上升为中风险。调整后,68.2%的历史山洪灾害事件分布于中、高风险区内, 表明改进后的评估方法能更准确地反映高山峡谷区实际灾害风险分布, 显著提升了山洪灾害风险评估的合理性与可靠性。

         

        Abstract: To improve the accuracy of flash flood risk assessment in alpine and canyon regions, this study focused on Baoxing County, Ya′an City, Sichuan Province as the research area. Through field investigations, key risk indicators were systematically evaluated for each assessment unit, including flood control capacity, basin concentration time, population size, magnitude of loose solid material and special channel morphology. The flood disaster risk classification for 96 assessment units was conducted following the scoring framework provided in the Technical Requirements for Dynamic Management and Grading of Flash Flood Hazard Zones in Sichuan Province. Additionally, in rich sediment areas, the potential for sediment deposition, triggered by sediment-laden flash floods passing through special channel reaches, and its consequent reduction in flood control capacity were incorporated to adjust and refine the risk ratings. The results indicated that without accounting for water-sediment synergy, 66.7% of the area were classified as low risk and 33.3% as medium risk. However, 63.6% of historical flash flood events occurred within zones initially rated as low risk, suggesting a discrepancy in risk representation under this model. After integrating the impairing effect of water-sediment interaction on flood defense capacity, 31.2% of the originally medium risk zones were upgraded to high risk, and 43.8% of the lowrisk zones were elevated to mediumrisk. Under this revised assessment, 68.2% of recorded historical flash floods fall within medium and high risk categories, demonstrating that the adjusted approach more accurately aligns with observed disaster patterns and enhances the reliability and practical relevance of flash flood risk evaluation.

         

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